For 78 years, Madagascar—the fourth largest island in the world—has been trapped in a relentless loop of revolution, hope, and betrayal. As of late 2025, the cycle has turned once again. The streets of the capital, Antananarivo, are flooded with protesters, the military has switched its allegiances, and the president is in hiding.
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This is not just a political crisis; it is a mirrors-and-smoke repetition of history. To understand why Madagascar is on edge today, one must look at the man currently fleeing power, the unit that put him there, and a bloody colonial legacy that refused to die.
The Fall of the “High-Speed” President
In late September 2025, the youth of Madagascar—Gen Z—took to the streets. Initially, their demands were primal: they wanted electricity and clean water. In a country of 31 million people, only one-third have access to power. Blackouts last eight hours or more, causing medicine to spoil in defunct refrigerators and leaving families to survive without basic sanitation.
However, the “utility protests” quickly evolved. The anger shifted toward the man at the top: Andry Rajoelina.
Born May 30, 1974, Rajoelina was once the darling of the masses. A former nightclub DJ turned media mogul, he was nicknamed “TGV” after France’s high-speed train—fast, ambitious, and unstoppable. He rose to power in 2009 by leading the very same type of protests now targeting him, accusing the then-president of corruption and a “dictatorial” lifestyle.
Today, Rajoelina is accused of becoming exactly what he once fought. Under his watch:
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75% of the population lives in severe poverty.
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The country ranked 141st out of 180 on Transparency International’s corruption index.
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His Chief of Cabinet, Romy Andrianarisoa, was convicted in a London court in 2024 for demanding bribes from a British mining company.
By October 12, 2025, the military unit that acted as Rajoelina’s “kingmaker” in 2009, CAPSAT, officially turned on him. They released a video declaring they would no longer be “bootlickers” for the regime. On October 13, Rajoelina reportedly fled the country on a French aircraft, leaving a power vacuum and a nation in turmoil.
A History Written in Blood: The 1947 Ghost
The tragedy of Madagascar’s modern politics is rooted in March 29, 1947. While still a French colony, Malagasy nationalists rose up against their occupiers. France, led by a supposedly “socialist” government, responded with a brutality that remains a dark stain on its history.
The French military used “psychological warfare,” throwing suspects alive from planes to terrorize the population. In Moramanga, French colonists machine-gunned 166 prisoners locked in train cars. While official French records long claimed 11,000 deaths, modern historians estimate that up to 40,000 people—2% of the entire population—were slaughtered.
When independence finally came in 1960, it was not given to the rebels who bled for the country. Instead, France handed power to the collaborators—the PADESM party, who had helped crush the 1947 uprising. This established a foundation of governance built on extraction and loyalty to a broken system rather than service to the people.
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The “Kingmakers” of CAPSAT
In Madagascar, the military—specifically the CAPSAT (Army Personnel Administration Center)—does not just defend the borders; they decide the presidency.
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2009: CAPSAT mutinied against President Marc Ravalomanana, seizing the palace and installing a 34-year-old Andry Rajoelina.
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2025: CAPSAT escorted protesters into May 13th Square, the historic heart of Malagasy uprisings, and installed General Destin Piculas as the new military chief.
The pattern is stark: a businessman-turned-politician promises reform, the economy suffers, the people protest, and CAPSAT moves the pieces on the board. Each time, the world watches as the GDP fluctuates, aid vanishes, and the poor remain poor.
Is This Time Different? The “One Piece” Generation
Despite the familiar military intervention, there is a new variable in the 2025 crisis. The youth of Madagascar are no longer looking for a “savior.” They have seen Rajoelina—the man who overthrew a corrupt billionaire—become a president whose inner circle was caught in international bribery stings.
They are waving flags featuring a pirate skull wearing traditional Malagasy art—a symbol inspired by the anime One Piece. This symbol has become a global icon for Gen Z resistance, from Kenya to Nepal, representing a fight against “The System” rather than a single individual.
Current State of Affairs (As of October 16, 2025):
| Status | Detail |
| President Rajoelina | In exile (location unknown), refuses to resign and claims constitutional authority. |
| Military Government | Led by Colonel Michael Randrian, has dissolved all institutions except Parliament. |
| International Response | The African Union has suspended Madagascar; Air France and Emirates have suspended flights. |
| Casualties | At least 22 confirmed dead in the recent clashes. |
Breaking the 78-Year Loop
Madagascar is one of the most unique places on Earth, home to species found nowhere else and a population with immense potential. Yet, it remains a “captured state.” From the police officer demanding a small bribe to the cabinet official demanding millions for a mining license, the extraction-based system installed by the colonial administration in 1960 has never been fully dismantled.
The military has announced it will rule through a committee for two years before holding elections. The African Union and the international community are skeptical, calling for an immediate return to civilian rule.
The question for Madagascar is no longer who will lead, but whether the very foundation of the state can be rebuilt. If the “New Madagascar” is once again built on the ruins of the old corruption, the cycle of 1947, 2009, and 2025 will simply wait another 16 years to repeat itself.