Guinea-Bissau is a nation defined by a paradox: it was born from one of the most intellectually profound and militarily successful liberation struggles in African history, yet it has become a global symbol of political instability and organized crime. On November 26, 2025, the world watched a familiar scene play out—a military officer appearing on state television to announce the deposition of the president.
Advertisement
To understand why Guinea-Bissau remains trapped in this loop, one must look past the gunfire of 2025 and into the revolutionary dreams of the 1960s, the economic desperation of the 1990s, and the billion-dollar drug trade that eventually hollowed out the state.
1. The Revolutionary Roots: Amílcar Cabral’s Vision
For over 500 years, Portugal controlled Guinea-Bissau as a neglected trading post. Unlike other colonial powers, Portugal didn’t just steal land; they manipulated prices, buying local crops for pennies and selling imports at a premium.
In the 1950s, Amílcar Cabral, an agronomist, founded the PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde). Cabral was a visionary who believed that independence was meaningless without social transformation. While conducting an “agricultural survey” for the colonial government, he was actually mapping the terrain for a guerrilla war and studying the social structures of the ethnic groups he hoped to unite.
The War for Liberation (1963–1974)
After the 1959 Pidjiguiti Port Massacre, where Portuguese police killed striking dockworkers, Cabral turned to armed struggle. Despite being outgunned, the PAIGC achieved remarkable success:
-
Social Infrastructure: They built 164 schools and 100 health posts in “liberated zones” while the war was still raging.
-
Gender Equality: Cabral insisted women serve as fighters and political leaders.
-
Military Success: By the early 1970s, the PAIGC controlled two-thirds of the country, using Soviet anti-aircraft missiles to strip Portugal of its air superiority.
Cabral was assassinated in 1973 by one of his own commanders—a victim of Portuguese manipulation. However, his movement was so well-structured that Guinea-Bissau declared independence months later, eventually leading to the collapse of the Portuguese dictatorship in the 1974 Carnation Revolution.
2. The Descent: From Liberation to Coups
The hope of 1974 quickly soured. The PAIGC established a one-party state, and the military—which had been the heart of the revolution—refused to yield to civilian authority.
-
1980: Nino Vieira led the first successful coup, overthrowing Luís Cabral (Amílcar’s brother). This ended the dream of a unified Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde.
-
1998–1999 Civil War: A dispute between President Vieira and General Ansumane Mané turned into a bloody conflict that leveled the capital and displaced hundreds of thousands.
-
The Revolving Door: Between 1980 and 2025, no elected president successfully completed a term until José Mário Vaz (2014–2020). Even then, stability was fleeting.
3. Africa’s First “Narco-State.”
In the mid-2000s, a new factor entered the equation: Cocaine. Latin American cartels, seeking a “back door” into Europe to avoid heightened security in the Caribbean, discovered Guinea-Bissau’s Bijagós Archipelago.
Why Guinea-Bissau?
The country offered the perfect environment for trafficking:
-
Geography: 88 islands and dense mangroves provided perfect cover.
-
Linguistic Links: Shared Portuguese language with Brazil.
-
State Weakness: A military that earned more from bribes than salaries.
Advertisement
By 2008, the UN labeled it a “Narco-State.” Unlike Mexico, where cartels fight the government, in Guinea-Bissau, the state is the cartel. High-ranking military officials, such as former Navy Head José Américo Bubo Na Tchuto (captured in a 2013 DEA sting), were directly involved in offloading tons of cocaine.
| Metric | Detail |
| Annual Cocaine Flow | ~30+ Tons |
| Street Value in Europe | Billions of USD |
| GDP per Capita | ~$1,000 |
| Poverty Rate | Over 60% of population in extreme poverty |
4. The 2025 Coup: A Logical Conclusion
The presidency of Umaro Sissoko Embaló (2020–2025) was marked by controversy. He took office despite Supreme Court challenges and ruled with a heavy hand, dissolving Parliament twice.
By late 2025, the political climate reached a breaking point. Following the November 23rd elections, both Embaló and his rival Fernando Dias claimed victory before the votes were counted. On November 26, Brigadier General Dennis Encaná—the very man tasked with the President’s protection—arrested Embaló.
The military justified the coup by citing “the restoration of order” and alleging a plot involving “politicians and drug barons.” However, for the people of Bissau, it was simply another chapter in a half-century-old story.
5. Why the Cycle Continues
Three structural pillars keep Guinea-Bissau in a state of perpetual instability:
-
Winner-Take-All Politics: In a country with few private-sector jobs, the state is the only source of wealth. Losing an election means losing everything, making politicians desperate to hold power at any cost.
-
Ethnic Fractures: While Cabral preached unity, later leaders exploited divisions between the Balanta, Fula, and Mandinka groups to secure military loyalty.
-
The Military’s “Entitlement”: The army views itself as the “Founding Father” of the nation. They do not see themselves as servants of the state, but as its masters.
The Human Cost
While generals and politicians fight for control of the drug trade, the 2.2 million citizens of Guinea-Bissau suffer.
-
Infrastructure: Roads are crumbling, and electricity is a luxury.
-
Healthcare: Hospitals frequently lack basic supplies.
-
Education: Schools are often shuttered due to strikes or lack of funding.
Conclusion: Walking in Circles
Amílcar Cabral famously said, “Hide nothing from the masses of our people. Tell no lies. Expose lies whenever they are told. Mask no difficulties, mistakes, failures. Claim no easy victories.”
Fifty-one years after independence, Guinea-Bissau has ignored this advice. The 2025 coup was not an anomaly; it was the result of a system where the military is the ultimate arbiter of power and cocaine is the ultimate currency. Until the military is truly professionalized and the economy is decoupled from the drug trade, the bronze statue of Cabral in Bissau will continue to look out over a nation that has won its freedom from Portugal, but has yet to win its freedom from itself.