At approximately 1:00 p.m. on November 26, 2025, the capital city of Bissau looked like it was settling into its usual afternoon rhythm. The humid air was filled with the familiar drone of motorcycle taxis and the calls of street vendors. Inside the presidential palace, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló sat behind his desk, presumably awaiting the final tally of an election held just three days prior.
Then, the gunfire began.
I. The Clinical Strike (November 26)
The operation was not a chaotic street battle; it was a coordinated strike timed down to the minute. Automatic weapons fire erupted simultaneously at three critical locations:
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The Presidential Palace
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The National Electoral Commission (CNE) headquarters
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The Interior Ministry
Moments after the first shots, soldiers loyal to Brigadier General Dinis Incanha, the man responsible for the President’s own security, moved into the compound. In a chilling display of shifting loyalties, the guards stationed to defend the President did not resist. They simply stepped aside.
There was no shootout, no “last stand.” President Embaló was arrested in his office without a struggle. It was a silent, almost clinical military operation. Within hours, the capital was under total lockdown. Roadblocks appeared at major intersections, and armored vehicles took positions at ministries and the airport.
II. Wiping the Chessboard Clean
At the army headquarters, General Incanha appeared on state TV, flanked by armed soldiers. He announced a takeover by the High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order. The scale of the purge quickly became apparent. The military detained:
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President Embaló
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General Biagué Na N’Tan (Armed Forces Chief)
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General Mamadou Touré (Deputy Chief)
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Botche Candé (Interior Minister)
Then, the military took an unusual step. They didn’t just target the government; they arrested the opposition as well. Fernando Dias, the candidate who had claimed victory three days earlier, was taken from his home. Former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira was also detained. The military wasn’t picking a side; they were wiping the entire political chessboard clean.
III. The Election that Sparked the Flame (Nov 23–25)
To understand this intervention, we have to look back to November 23, 2025, election day. The country was already fractured. For the first time in history, the PAIGC—the party that fought for independence—was not on the ballot, having been disqualified by the Supreme Court in September.
The real explosion came on November 24, one day before official results were due.
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Fernando Dias declared victory, claiming his campaign had won almost all regions.
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Hours later, Embaló’s spokesperson, Oscar Barbosa, made an identical statement: they had won, and no runoff was needed.
This created a constitutional deadlock. No matter what the official results showed, half the country was prepared to reject them as fraudulent. The stage was set for post-election violence, and the military was watching.
IV. The “Narco-State” Twist
In his address to the nation, General Incanha cited a dramatic justification: a plan to destabilize the country involving “national drug lords.” On paper, the claim was believable. Guinea-Bissau is a known global hub for South American cocaine transit.
However, there is a paradox here. Earlier in 2025, Embaló’s government had taken unprecedented steps against the cartels:
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Extraditing four major drug traffickers to the United States in April.
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Seizing 2.6 tons of cocaine in one of the largest hauls in West African history.
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Declaring, “Guinea-Bissau is no longer a narco-state.”
These moves threatened powerful interests within the military and the elite. When the military says they acted to stop “drug lords,” the question remains: Were they stopping drug flows, or defending them from a President who was cooperating too closely with the US DEA?
V. The Pattern of Instability
Since independence in 1974, Guinea-Bissau has experienced:
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5 successful coups
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17 attempted or alleged plots
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1 major civil war
On average, a coup occurs every three years. The military views itself as the “rightful guardian” of the nation, a belief forged during the armed struggle for independence. President Embaló was supposed to break this pattern. But in his effort to prevent military interference, he consolidated power by dissolving parliament and questioning the judiciary. By dismantling the civilian institutions that could have constrained the military, he inadvertently cleared the path for his own removal.
VI. The External Players
While the causes were local, the implications are global:
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Russia: Embaló had cultivated close ties with Moscow, visiting Vladimir Putin in February 2025 to discuss bauxite and oil. While Russia didn’t likely orchestrate the coup (as Embaló was already their ally), they may offer the new junta security assistance if the West imposes sanctions.
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Portugal: Relations with the former colonial power were at an all-time low after Embaló expelled Portuguese journalists in August 2025.
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The United States: Washington lost a key partner in the war on drugs. Beyond counter-narcotics, the US has little strategic interest in the region.
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The Cartels: Latin American cartels and the Italian Ndrangheta remain the most significant “foreign” influence, funding political campaigns and corrupting military officers to maintain the country as a gateway to Europe.
Conclusion
As of late 2025, the 1.9 million people of Guinea-Bissau are once again living under military rule. The borders are closed, a curfew is in place, and the democratic process is suspended.