The transition from Muhammadu Buhari to Bola Tinubu was more than a change of personnel; it was a fiscal “reset” that exposed the sheer magnitude of the debt Buhari had accumulated in the shadows.
Here is a detailed breakdown of the “Ways and Means” debt and a comparative look at the security landscape from 2023 to early 2026.
1. The Fiscal Inheritance: “Ways and Means.”
The biggest economic shock Tinubu delivered was uncovering the “Ways and Means” advances—essentially an overdraft the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) gave to Buhari’s government to cover budget deficits.
The Buhari Debt “Bubble”
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The Hidden Bill: For years, the Buhari administration bypassed the National Assembly to borrow directly from the CBN. By the time he left in May 2023, this “secret” debt stood at approximately ₦22.7 trillion.
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The Last-Minute Legalization: Just days before leaving office, Buhari secured Senate approval to “securitize” this debt (turn it into long-term bonds). This moved the debt from the CBN’s books to the public debt stock, causing Nigeria’s official debt to “jump” overnight from ₦49 trillion to ₦87 trillion in June 2023.
The Tinubu Response (2023–2026)
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Total Securitization: Upon taking office, Tinubu discovered even more outstanding advances, bringing the total Ways and Means debt to over ₦30 trillion.
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Debt Service Stress: By 2024, the cost of serving this debt consumed nearly 97% of government revenue.
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2026 Status: As of January 2026, the administration has successfully reduced the debt-to-service ratio to roughly 68% by aggressively expanding the tax net and using the savings from the removed fuel subsidy to pay down obligations. However, total public debt has ballooned to over ₦149 trillion, largely due to the devaluation of the Naira against foreign loans.
2. Security: A Comparison of Two Doctrines
While Buhari was criticized for “lethargic” security management, Tinubu has adopted a more “active” but equally controversial approach.
The Buhari Era (2015–2023)
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Strategy: Protectionist and reactive. He focused on the Northeast (Boko Haram) but largely ignored the rising threat of “Banditry” in the Northwest until his final years.
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Fatalities: Data shows that approximately 31,821 people were killed by non-state actors during his eight years.
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The “Deafening Silence”: His refusal to visit scenes of massacres (like in Plateau or Benue) created a sense of abandonment.
The Tinubu Era (2023–2026)
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Strategy: Decisive force and “kinetic” operations. Tinubu replaced all security chiefs immediately and increased the use of drone strikes.
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The Numbers: Recent data from Beacon Security and Intelligence shows that while terrorism deaths have slightly dropped, kidnapping has surged.
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Fatalities: Between June 2023 and April 2025, over 17,617 fatalities were recorded.
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Abductions: Kidnapping has become a “national industry.” In one 12-month period (2024–2025), Nigerians reportedly paid a staggering ₦2.23 trillion in ransoms.
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2026 Reality: Security has improved in the Niger Delta (boosting oil production to 1.7m bpd), but the Northwest and North-Central regions remain “war zones.” Mass school abductions returned in late 2025, with a major raid in Niger State involving over 300 students.
3. The “Winner-Takes-All” vs. “Renewed Hope.”
| Feature | Buhari (The General) | Tinubu (The Reformer) |
| Appointments | Criticized as “lopsided” toward the North. | Accused of favoring the “Southwest/Lagos” circle. |
| Dissent | Used SSS/DSS to arrest critics (e.g., Sowore). | Uses “Economic Stabilization” and Tax laws to pressure opposition. |
| Protest Handling | Lekki Toll Gate (Oct 2020) – Military force. | August 2024 Hunger Protests – Police containment & dialogue. |
| Communication | Rare media chats; spoke through aides. | Frequent (if rehearsed) national broadcasts and town halls. |
Summary of the Transition
Buhari left a house with rotting foundations—hidden debts, a crippled currency, and a security architecture that had “lost the battle.”
Tinubu has chosen to demolish and rebuild, but the “dust” from this demolition (high fuel prices, 30%+ inflation in 2024, and Naira crashes) has made life almost unbearable for the middle class. By early 2026, the economy is showing “green shoots” of stability, but the security crisis—specifically the kidnapping epidemic—remains a dark cloud over his legacy.