The Investing in African Mining Indaba 2026, currently taking place at the CTICC in Cape Town, hosted a spirited and novel debate on its second day. While conventional wisdom suggests that Africa faces significant geopolitical “headwinds”—including tariffs, immigration curbs, and growing nationalism—industry experts suggest this global disorder may actually present a significant upside for the continent.
The Geopolitical Power Play
Moderated by Rohitesh Dhawan, CEO of the International Council on Mining and Metals, the debate featured two teams of mining opinion leaders offering competing views on Africa’s future. Using a “politician’s rule” where speakers didn’t necessarily have to believe their own arguments, the session highlighted a critical consensus: Africa is powerfully positioned to benefit from its rich critical-minerals endowment.
Ronak Gopaldas, director at Signal Risk, offered a sobering take on the return of power politics. He argued that without collective bargaining and regional solidarity, African nations risk being “rule takers rather than rule makers” in an environment where economic and military might are paramount.
Africa’s Competitive Edge: Resources and Youth
On the optimistic side, Mpumi Zikalala, CEO of Kumba Iron Ore, underscored the “undeniable reality” of Africa’s leverage.
-
Mineral Wealth: Africa holds approximately 40% of the world’s proven critical-mineral reserves.
-
Youth Dividend: The continent possesses the youngest population on the planet, providing a massive, trainable workforce to meet long-term development and mineral demands.
-
Strategic Investment: Techmet CEO Brian Menell noted that the US, Europe, and Japan are already committing capital to derisk investments and transform supply chains, which he believes assures Africa’s position as a winner.
The Governance Challenge
Despite the optimism regarding geological wealth, experts agreed that “geology is not destiny”. Gracelin Baskaran of the Center for Strategic and International Studies emphasized that Africa must master the “third G”—Governance.
To seize the current opportunity, panelists suggested that the continent must address:
-
Policy Coherence: Overcoming issues like resource nationalism and double taxation that deter global exploration projects.
-
Regional Integration: Rather than every country attempting to build its own infrastructure, it makes more sense to build regional refineries served by aligned policies.
Ultimately, the debate concluded that while the geopolitical climate is turbulent, the global need for resources for the energy transition and robotics makes Africa an indispensable player. As Dhawan noted, even in times of turmoil, the opportunities for the continent remain “exciting”.