{"id":5529,"date":"2026-04-30T15:27:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T15:27:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/?p=5529"},"modified":"2026-03-05T14:21:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T14:21:35","slug":"the-slippery-tree-how-tanzanias-promise-of-reform-collapsed-into-repression","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/the-slippery-tree-how-tanzanias-promise-of-reform-collapsed-into-repression\/","title":{"rendered":"The Slippery Tree: How Tanzania\u2019s Promise of Reform Collapsed into Repression"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-path-to-node=\"1\"><span class=\"citation-487\">On the afternoon of Saturday, <\/span><b data-path-to-node=\"1\" data-index-in-node=\"30\"><span class=\"citation-487\">October 4, 2025<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-487 citation-end-487\">, a video began circulating that sent shockwaves through the East African Community.<\/span> It didn&#8217;t feature a celebrity or a career politician. Instead, the man on screen wore the uniform of the <b data-path-to-node=\"1\" data-index-in-node=\"235\">Tanzania People\u2019s Defence Force (TPDF)<\/b>. <span class=\"citation-486\">Identifying himself as <\/span><b data-path-to-node=\"1\" data-index-in-node=\"298\"><span class=\"citation-486\">Captain John Charles Tesha<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-486 citation-end-486\">, a weapons instructor at the Military Air School, he stared directly into the lens and delivered a message that Tanzania had not heard from a soldier in sixty years.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"03bb5c02e2f58c6bb7f372bc13011e34\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size:10px;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/span><\/p>\r\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-8677361123316975\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ZXZ -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8677361123316975\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3054782407\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br><br \/>\n<\/div>\n\n<p data-path-to-node=\"2\"><i data-path-to-node=\"2\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">&#8220;Your government is stealing from you,&#8221;<\/i> Tesha declared. <i data-path-to-node=\"2\" data-index-in-node=\"56\">&#8220;If we don&#8217;t stop them, this nation will collapse.&#8221;<\/i><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"3\"><span class=\"citation-485 citation-end-485\">For over two hours, Tesha livestreamed a scathing indictment of the state.<\/span> <span class=\"citation-484 citation-end-484\">He accused the government of grand corruption, cited a wave of state-sponsored abductions, and made a chilling demand: the military must intervene to stop the upcoming elections and &#8220;save&#8221; the nation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"4\">Within hours, the video had exploded across TikTok, WhatsApp, and Instagram. <span class=\"citation-483 citation-end-483\">By October 6, the military issued a stern warning against &#8220;political activism&#8221; within its ranks.<\/span> <span class=\"citation-482 citation-end-482\">Tesha was discharged, and his whereabouts became a subject of intense speculation.<\/span> But the fire he lit was not about one man; it was about a country that feels it is being watched by ghosts.<\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<hr data-path-to-node=\"5\" \/>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"6\">The Bulldozer\u2019s Legacy and the &#8220;Mama&#8221; Who Promised Change<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"7\">To understand how a decorated officer reached such a point of desperation, one must look back to <b data-path-to-node=\"7\" data-index-in-node=\"97\">March 2021<\/b>. Tanzania woke up to the news that President <b data-path-to-node=\"7\" data-index-in-node=\"153\">John Magufuli<\/b>, known as &#8220;The Bulldozer,&#8221; had died. The official cause was a heart condition, but after he had been missing for weeks, many suspected COVID-19\u2014a virus Magufuli famously claimed didn&#8217;t exist in Tanzania.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"8\">Magufuli was a polarizing titan. He built roads, renegotiated mining contracts to favor Tanzanians over foreign corporations, and fired corrupt officials on live television. To many, he was a patriot fighting for the common man. To others, he was a tyrant who crushed the free press and jailed opponents.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"9\"><span class=\"citation-481\">When <\/span><b data-path-to-node=\"9\" data-index-in-node=\"5\"><span class=\"citation-481\">Samia Suluhu Hassan<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-481 citation-end-481\"> took the oath of office two days later, she became Tanzania\u2019s first female president.<\/span> The world exhaled. <span class=\"citation-480 citation-end-480\">&#8220;Mama Samia,&#8221; as she is known, initially seemed like the antidote to Magufuli\u2019s iron-fisted rule.<\/span> She:<\/p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"10\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"10,0,0\">Lifted bans on media outlets.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"10,1,0\">Released high-profile political prisoners.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"10,2,0\">Acknowledged the reality of COVID-19.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"10,3,0\"><span class=\"citation-479 citation-end-479\">Unbanned political rallies.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"11\">For a moment, it felt like a &#8220;Tanzanian Spring.&#8221; But as 2024 turned into 2025, the mask of reform began to slip.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"11\">\n<hr data-path-to-node=\"12\" \/>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"13\">The System: 48 Years of CCM<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"14\">President Samia did not just inherit a country; she inherited the <b data-path-to-node=\"14\" data-index-in-node=\"66\">Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM)<\/b>, a party that has held power since 1977. In a one-party-dominant system, the survival of the party often eclipses the needs of the people.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"15\">By mid-2024, the old guard\u2014retired generals, former presidents like <b data-path-to-node=\"15\" data-index-in-node=\"68\">Jakaya Kikwete<\/b>, and powerful businessmen like <b data-path-to-node=\"15\" data-index-in-node=\"114\">Rostam Aziz<\/b>\u2014seemed to have reasserted control. The reforms stopped. The &#8220;Old Playbook&#8221; of repression returned with a vengeance.<\/p>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"16\"><\/h3>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"16\">The Summer of Disappearances<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"17\">The most horrifying evidence of this shift was a wave of abductions. The <b data-path-to-node=\"17\" data-index-in-node=\"73\">Tanganyika Law Society<\/b> documented dozens of cases.<\/p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"18\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"18,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Ali Muhammad Kibao:<\/b> A senior official of the opposition party <b data-path-to-node=\"18,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"62\">CHADEMA<\/b>. On September 6, 2024, he was pulled from a bus by armed men in broad daylight. Two days later, his body was found; he had been beaten, tortured, and doused with acid.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"18,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Youth Activists:<\/b> Dozens of young CHADEMA supporters vanished. People like Dion Kizipa and Jacob Godwin were taken by men identifying as police and were never seen again.<\/p><div class=\"03bb5c02e2f58c6bb7f372bc13011e34\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size:10px;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/span><\/p>\r\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-8677361123316975\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ZXZ -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8677361123316975\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3054782407\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br><br \/>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"19\"><span class=\"citation-478\">When the newspaper <\/span><i data-path-to-node=\"19\" data-index-in-node=\"19\"><span class=\"citation-478\">The Citizen<\/span><\/i><span class=\"citation-478 citation-end-478\"> posted an animated video in October 2024 showing a cartoon version of President Samia flipping through TV channels\u2014only to see the faces of the missing\u2014the government\u2019s response was swift.<\/span> They suspended the entire media house for 30 days, claiming the animation &#8220;harmed national unity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<hr data-path-to-node=\"20\" \/>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"21\">The Silencing of Tundu Lissu<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"22\">The primary target of the state\u2019s ire has been <b data-path-to-node=\"22\" data-index-in-node=\"47\">Tundu Lissu<\/b>, the firebrand CHADEMA chairman who survived 16 bullets in a 2017 assassination attempt. <span class=\"citation-477\">In <\/span><b data-path-to-node=\"22\" data-index-in-node=\"151\"><span class=\"citation-477\">April 2025<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-477\">, the government raised the stakes, charging Lissu with <\/span><b data-path-to-node=\"22\" data-index-in-node=\"217\"><span class=\"citation-477\">treason<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-477 citation-end-477\">, a crime that carries the death penalty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"23\"><span class=\"citation-476 citation-end-476\">The charge stemmed from a speech where Lissu called for electoral reforms.<\/span> <span class=\"citation-475 citation-end-475\">Since then, his trial has been a merry-go-round of postponements.<\/span> Each time a trial date approaches, it is moved. The strategy is clear: keep the most popular opposition figure in a legal limbo so he cannot effectively campaign.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"24\"><span class=\"citation-474\">When international legal icons\u2014including former Kenyan Chief Justice <\/span><b data-path-to-node=\"24\" data-index-in-node=\"69\"><span class=\"citation-474\">Willie Mutunga<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-474 citation-end-474\">\u2014tried to enter Tanzania to observe the trial in May 2025, they were detained at the airport and deported.<\/span> President Samia\u2019s message was blunt: no &#8220;foreign interference&#8221; would be tolerated.<\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<hr data-path-to-node=\"25\" \/>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"26\">The Border Crisis: A Spark of Resistance<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"27\">On <b data-path-to-node=\"27\" data-index-in-node=\"3\">October 18, 2025<\/b>, just two weeks after Captain Tesha\u2019s video, another flashpoint occurred. <b data-path-to-node=\"27\" data-index-in-node=\"94\"><span class=\"citation-473\">John Heche<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-473\">, the Deputy Chairman of CHADEMA, attempted to cross into Kenya to attend the funeral of Kenyan opposition leader <\/span><b data-path-to-node=\"27\" data-index-in-node=\"218\"><span class=\"citation-473\">Raila Odinga<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-473 citation-end-473\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"28\">Tanzanian immigration officials seized his passport and detained him at the Isibania border. Heche did what the youth of Tanzania have learned to do: he went live on social media.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"29\">What happened next was unprecedented. A crowd of hundreds of young people from both sides of the border\u2014Kenyans and Tanzanians\u2014surrounded the immigration office. They didn&#8217;t throw stones; they held up phones. They made the world watch in real time. Within six hours, the government backed down and released him. It was a rare, viral victory for &#8220;people power&#8221; over the state apparatus.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"29\">\n<hr data-path-to-node=\"30\" \/>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"31\">Election Day: October 29, 2025<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"32\">As the nation heads to the polls on <b data-path-to-node=\"32\" data-index-in-node=\"36\">October 29, 2025<\/b>, the atmosphere is one of resigned inevitability.<\/p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"33\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"33,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"33,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">99% Victory?<\/b> In the 2024 local elections, the CCM claimed 99% of the seats. Analysts expect a similar &#8220;landslide&#8221; in the general election.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"33,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"33,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\"><span class=\"citation-472\">Fragmented Opposition:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-472 citation-end-472\"> With Lissu facing treason charges and other leaders in and out of detention, there is no level playing field.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"33,2,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"33,2,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">The Gender Shield:<\/b> Supporters of the President often dismiss criticism as sexism, arguing that men cannot handle a female leader. But for the families of the disappeared and the journalists in hiding, the issue isn&#8217;t the President\u2019s gender\u2014it\u2019s the return of the &#8220;Bulldozer&#8221; tactics under a different name.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr data-path-to-node=\"34\" \/>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"35\">Conclusion: The Slippery Tree<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"36\">There is a Swahili proverb: <i data-path-to-node=\"36\" data-index-in-node=\"28\">&#8220;When the monkey&#8217;s day to die comes, all the trees become slippery.&#8221;<\/i> Tanzania was once the &#8220;Island of Peace&#8221; in a turbulent region. Today, that peace feels enforced by fear rather than maintained by consent. Captain Tesha\u2019s video, the murder of Ali Muhammad Kibao, and the treason trial of Tundu Lissu are all signs of a system that is no longer trying to persuade its citizens but simply to outlast them.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"37\">The story of Samia Suluhu Hassan\u2019s presidency began with the hope of a &#8220;New Tanzania.&#8221; It is ending with the realization that while leaders change, the system remains\u2014and the system does not like to be challenged.<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the afternoon of Saturday, October 4, 2025, a video began circulating that sent shockwaves through the East African Community. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[182,207],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deep-dives","category-tanzania"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5529"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5529\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5530,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5529\/revisions\/5530"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}