{"id":5827,"date":"2026-03-11T06:18:53","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T06:18:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/?p=5827"},"modified":"2026-05-09T18:17:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T18:17:18","slug":"gemini-said-the-price-of-deliberate-chaos-how-south-sudans-elites-profit-from-a-stalled-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/gemini-said-the-price-of-deliberate-chaos-how-south-sudans-elites-profit-from-a-stalled-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Gemini said The Price of Deliberate Chaos: How South Sudan\u2019s Elites Profit from a Stalled Peace"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-path-to-node=\"1\">For a brief, shining moment on July 9, 2011, South Sudan was the most hopeful place on Earth. In Juba, the world\u2019s newest capital, people danced in the streets to celebrate the birth of their nation after decades of war. On paper, the country was a titan in waiting: it possessed vast oil reserves, millions of acres of fertile land, and the unwavering support of the international community.<\/p><div class=\"03bb5c02e2f58c6bb7f372bc13011e34\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size:10px;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/span><\/p>\r\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-8677361123316975\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ZXZ -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8677361123316975\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3054782407\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br><br \/>\n<\/div>\n\n<p data-path-to-node=\"2\">But fifteen years later, that hope has been replaced by a grim reality. As of February 2026, South Sudan is not a country in transition; it is a country in suspension. <span class=\"citation-303\">The arrest and trial of First Vice President Riek Machar on charges of <\/span><span class=\"citation-303\">murder, treason, and crimes against humanity<\/span><span class=\"citation-303 citation-end-303\"> in September 2025 has brought the nation to the precipice of a new civil war.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"3\">While the government frames these charges as a matter of legal accountability, a deeper look reveals a more cynical pattern. In South Sudan, instability is not a failure of the system\u2014it is the system. For a small group of political and military elites, a permanent state of &#8220;peace-processing&#8221; has become more profitable than actual peace.<\/p>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"5\"><\/h3>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"5\">The Fractured Foundation: Kiir vs. Machar<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"6\">To understand why the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS) is currently being dismantled, one must look at the two men at the top: President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar.<\/p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"7\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"7,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"7,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\"><span class=\"citation-302\">Salva Kiir:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-302 citation-end-302\"> A Dinka military leader who has served as president since independence.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"7,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"7,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\"><span class=\"citation-301\">Riek Machar:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-301 citation-end-301\"> A Nuer intellectual and rebel leader who has been Kiir\u2019s primary rival for decades.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"8\"><span class=\"citation-300\">Their rivalry first tore the country apart in December 2013, leading to a civil war that killed nearly <\/span><span class=\"citation-300\">400,000 people<\/span><span class=\"citation-300\"> and displaced <\/span><span class=\"citation-300\">4 million<\/span><span class=\"citation-300 citation-end-300\">.<\/span> <span class=\"citation-299 citation-end-299\">Despite the 2018 peace deal, the underlying ethnic and political tensions never disappeared.<\/span> <span class=\"citation-298 citation-end-298\">Instead, they were baked into a &#8220;Unity Government&#8221; where two men who did not trust each other were expected to share power.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"9\">The Strategy of Delay<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"10\">The peace agreement was built on a timeline of democratic transition, but that timeline has been repeatedly ignored. Elections have become a mirage on the horizon:<\/p>\n<ol start=\"1\" data-path-to-node=\"11\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"11,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"11,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Original Date:<\/b><span class=\"citation-297 citation-end-297\"> 2023<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"11,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"11,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\"><span class=\"citation-296\">First Delay:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-296 citation-end-296\"> Pushed to December 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"11,2,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"11,2,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Second Delay:<\/b><span class=\"citation-295\"> In September 2024, the government announced a further extension to <\/span><span class=\"citation-295\">December 22, 2026<\/span><span class=\"citation-295 citation-end-295\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"12\">Each delay serves a dual purpose: it keeps the current elites in power without the risk of a ballot box, and it allows for the continued erosion of the opposition. In 2023, Kiir unilaterally removed the Defense Minister, Angelina Tenny (Machar\u2019s wife), replacing her with a loyalist. <span class=\"citation-294 citation-end-294\">Simultaneously, Machar\u2019s movement (SPLM-IO) began to splinter.<\/span> By offering amnesty and positions to breakaway rebel factions, Kiir\u2019s government has effectively &#8220;dismantled the opposition from the inside&#8221; without needing a full-scale offensive.<\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"14\"><\/h3>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"14\">&#8220;Plundering a Nation&#8221;: The Economics of Instability<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"15\"><span class=\"citation-293\">The most recent and damning evidence of why peace has stalled came in a September 2025 UN report titled <\/span><i data-path-to-node=\"15\" data-index-in-node=\"104\"><span class=\"citation-293\">\u201cPlundering a Nation.\u201d<\/span><\/i><span class=\"citation-293 citation-end-293\"> The report details a staggering level of &#8220;off-budget&#8221; spending that bypasses the South Sudanese people entirely.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"03bb5c02e2f58c6bb7f372bc13011e34\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size:10px;\">Advertisement<\/span><\/span><\/p>\r\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-8677361123316975\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ZXZ -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8677361123316975\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3054782407\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br><br \/>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h4 data-path-to-node=\"16\">The &#8220;Oil for Roads&#8221; Scandal<\/h4>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"17\"><span class=\"citation-292\">The government\u2019s flagship infrastructure project, <\/span><span class=\"citation-292\">Oil for Roads<\/span><span class=\"citation-292 citation-end-292\">, has become a textbook case of elite capture.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"18\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"18,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Total Revenue Received:<\/b><span class=\"citation-291\"> Over <\/span><span class=\"citation-291\">$2.2 billion<\/span><span class=\"citation-291 citation-end-291\"> by late 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"18,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\"><span class=\"citation-290\">Unaccounted Funds:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-290\"> Roughly <\/span><span class=\"citation-290\">$1.7 billion<\/span><span class=\"citation-290 citation-end-290\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18,2,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"18,2,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\"><span class=\"citation-289\">The Reality:<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-289\"> While billions were &#8220;spent,&#8221; investigators found that less than <\/span><span class=\"citation-289\">$500 million<\/span><span class=\"citation-289 citation-end-289\"> worth of roads were actually built.<\/span> Much of the money was channeled to shell companies linked to high-ranking officials, including Vice President Benjamin Bol Mel.<\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 data-path-to-node=\"19\">Upside-Down Priorities<\/h4>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20\">While the country faces a humanitarian catastrophe, the national budget reflects the interests of the presidency over the people:<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20\">| Entity | Spending (2020\u20132024) | Budget Overrun |<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20\">| :&#8212; | :&#8212; | :&#8212; |<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20\"><span class=\"citation-288\">| <\/span><b data-path-to-node=\"20\" data-index-in-node=\"206\"><span class=\"citation-288\">Ministry of Presidential Affairs<\/span><\/b><span class=\"citation-288 citation-end-288\"> | ~$557 Million | 584% |<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20\">| <b data-path-to-node=\"20\" data-index-in-node=\"266\">Ministry of Health<\/b> | ~$29 Million | N\/A |<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20\">| <b data-path-to-node=\"20\" data-index-in-node=\"310\">Agriculture &amp; Food Security<\/b> | ~$11 Million | N\/A |<\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"21\">The Ministry of Presidential Affairs spent 19 times more than the Ministry of Health, even as the country grappled with its worst cholera outbreak on record (over 98,000 cases reported since late 2024).<\/p>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"23\"><\/h3>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"23\">An Army in Name Only<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"24\"><span class=\"citation-287\">A cornerstone of the 2018 deal was the creation of a <\/span><span class=\"citation-287\">Unified National Army<\/span><span class=\"citation-287 citation-end-287\"> of 83,000 soldiers.<\/span> However, the process was a farce. By August 2022, when the first batch finally graduated, many recruits were seen parading with wooden replicas of rifles.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"25\">Today, command structures remain fragmented. Units stay loyal to their original ethnic factions rather than the state. Consequently, when political tensions spiked in Juba in late 2025, the security forces did not act as a neutral stabilizing force\u2014they acted as the private militias of the men at the top.<\/p>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"27\"><\/h3>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"27\">The Human Toll<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"28\">While the elites maneuver for control of the oil pipelines, the citizens of South Sudan are living through a &#8220;permanent crisis&#8221;:<\/p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"29\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"29,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"29,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\"><span class=\"citation-286\">Food Insecurity:<\/span><\/b> <span class=\"citation-286\">7.7 million people<\/span><span class=\"citation-286 citation-end-286\"> face acute hunger.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"29,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"29,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Education:<\/b> Over 70% of children are out of school, the highest rate globally.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"29,2,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"29,2,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Displacement:<\/b> Over 2 million people are internally displaced; another 2.3 million are refugees in neighboring countries.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"30\"><\/h3>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"30\">Conclusion: Is There a Way Forward?<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"31\">The arrest of Riek Machar in March 2025 and his subsequent treason trial have effectively frozen the political process. <span class=\"citation-285 citation-end-285\">The SPLM-IO has refused to engage in dialogue while its leader is under house arrest, and the government shows no signs of backing down.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"source-inline-chip-container ng-star-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"32\">As South Sudan drifts toward its new &#8220;final&#8221; election date of December 2026, the international community faces a difficult question: how do you enforce a peace agreement when the people in charge of it find the status quo of &#8220;managed instability&#8221; to be more profitable than a functioning democracy?<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For a brief, shining moment on July 9, 2011, South Sudan was the most hopeful place on Earth. In Juba, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[182,224],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deep-dives","category-south-sudan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5827"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5827\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5828,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5827\/revisions\/5828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xeroltha.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}