The conflict in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, presents a deeply complex security and humanitarian crisis fueled by long-standing marginalization, resource extraction, and political neglect. The statistics paint a stark picture of the immense human toll and the accelerating violence in the province, which is also spilling over into neighboring Nampula.
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Human Cost and Displacement
The numbers demonstrate the staggering scope of the humanitarian disaster:
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Fatalities: Since October 2017, there have been over 6,398 total reported fatalities from political violence, including at least 2,706 reported civilian fatalities (as of December 2025).
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Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs):
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The total number of displaced people due to the violence that began in 2017 has surpassed 1.3 million.
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As of December 2025, over 600,000 people remain displaced across northern Mozambique (Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces).
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Children constitute a significant majority of the displaced population, estimated at 52% to 67%.
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A massive surge in violence in late 2025 alone displaced over 100,000 people in November.
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The primary host districts for IDPs in Cabo Delgado include Cidade de Pemba, Metuge, and Macomia.
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Returnees: The number of returnees (people who went back to their districts of origin) has also been high, reaching over 610,000 people as of June 2025, but many are being displaced again due to renewed attacks.
Escalating Violence and Security
The conflict has not only persisted but has intensified, demonstrating the insurgents’ growing capacity and geographical reach:
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Record High Civilian Attacks: Civilian violence is on track to reach a record high in 2025, with 633 incidents targeting civilians recorded by October 2025, surpassing the previous peak of 448 attacks recorded in all of 2022.
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Geographical Spread: For the first time since the hostilities began, all 17 districts of Cabo Delgado have been directly affected. The conflict has also substantially spilled over into Nampula Province.
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Insurgent Activity: As of December 2025, over 2,285 political violence events have been recorded since October 2017, with over 2,125 involving Islamic State Mozambique (ISM).
Grave Violations Against Children
Children are disproportionately affected and systematically targeted by armed groups:
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Recruitment and Abduction: Mozambique ranked in the top five countries worldwide for the sharpest rise in grave violations against children in the UN Secretary-General’s 2025 report, showing a 525% increase in 2024.
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The UN verified that 403 children were recruited and used by armed groups in 2024, including 71 girls.
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Another 468 children were abducted in 2024, with 392 taken specifically for the purpose of recruitment and use.
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Education: Increased violence and displacement have led to the closure of over 166 schools, depriving at least 48,000 children of access to education.
Humanitarian Response Gap
Despite the massive need, the humanitarian response is severely constrained:
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Underfunding: The 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) requested $352 million to assist 1.3 million people, but funding has fallen significantly short, with a total of $66 million received as of July 2025.
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Aid Cuts: Due to limited funding and operational challenges, aid distributions have been drastically cut:
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As of July 2025, the food assistance provided every other month covers only 39% of the required caloric needs.
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The number of people reached with any form of assistance has declined by roughly 15% to 17% compared to 2024 levels.
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