In September 2025, a country already on the brink began to suffocate. In Mali, a landlocked nation of 22 million people, the “strange” events of late summer—burning fuel trucks, dark cities, and shuttered schools—were not merely the chaos of a long-standing insurgency. They were the opening salvos of a calculated, methodical campaign of economic warfare.
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The Geography of Vulnerability
To understand how Mali was brought to its knees, one must look at a map. As a landlocked state, Mali relies entirely on its neighbors for survival. Every liter of fuel, bag of rice, and life-saving medicine must travel by road from coastal hubs like Dakar, Senegal, or Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
By 2025, jihadist forces had systematically severed these lifelines.
The Anatomy of the Blockade
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The West (Kayes): In early September, six Senegalese truck drivers were abducted on the Dakar-Bamako route. By mid-month, convoys were being torched daily. This region is critical, housing 80% of Mali’s gold mines.
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The North (Timbuktu): The historic city became an island in the sand. All roads were blocked, and the Niger River—the final supply route—was sealed. Within two weeks, basic staples like flour and milk vanished from the markets.
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The Center (Mopti): By October 2025, a fuel embargo was in full effect. The city faced total blackouts; without diesel, there was no power for hospitals or pumps for water.
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The Borderlands (Léré): Near the Mauritanian border, the destruction of the Derby Bridge isolated 20,000 people, effectively cutting them off from the world.
The Architect: JNIM’s New Strategy
The force behind this “strangulation” is Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). Formed in 2017 as an al-Qaeda affiliate under Iyad Ag Ghali, the group shifted its tactics in 2025.
Unlike previous campaigns, JNIM wasn’t trying to capture territory or govern cities. Their goal was suffocation. By operating within 50 kilometers of the capital, Bamako, they aimed to break the social contract. If the government cannot provide fuel, light, or food, the people lose faith. This is “asphyxiation” as a political weapon.
Funding and Arming a Shadow State
How does an insurgent group sustain such a sophisticated blockade? The answer lies in two “G”s: Gold and Gaddafi.
1. The Gold Economy
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger produce roughly 50 tons of gold annually, worth approximately $2 billion. Most of this is mined informally. JNIM controls many of these artisanal sites, taxing miners and taking a “cut” of smuggling routes in exchange for protection.
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2. The Libyan Arsenal
The weapons flooding Mali today are ghosts of the 2011 Libyan collapse. After Muammar Gaddafi was ousted, his massive armories were looted. Advanced anti-aircraft guns and rockets flowed south. Today, these are supplemented by “battlefield recoveries”—arms looted from Malian military bases or illegally diverted through corruption.
The Great Pivot: From France to Russia
The Malian government maintains that this is more than an internal insurgency; they claim it is a punishment. After the 2021 coup, Mali’s leadership grew hostile toward France, eventually expelling French forces and the UN mission (MINUSMA).
The Fallout with the West
| Aspect | Pre-2022 Situation | Post-2022 Shift |
| Military Support | 5,000 French troops (Barkhane) | Expelled; replaced by ~1,000 Russia’s Africa Corps (formerly Wagner) |
| Intelligence | High-level drone/satellite sharing | Cut off by Western powers |
| Development Aid | Significant EU/US funding | Slashed or suspended |
Malian leaders, including Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga, have accused France of actively aiding terrorists to “partition” the country—claims France vehemently denies. Regardless of the veracity, the departure of French airpower and intelligence created a vacuum that JNIM quickly filled.
The Russian “Solution”
Russia offered Mali what the West would not: security without strings. In exchange for mining concessions and diplomatic loyalty, Russia provided:
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Attack helicopters and radar systems.
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160,000 to 200,000 metric tons of petroleum and agricultural products to break the blockade.
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Construction of a state-backed gold refinery to bypass Western-linked supply chains.
A Glimmer of Sovereignty?
Despite the crisis, the military government has made moves toward “economic sovereignty.” By renegotiating mining contracts in 2024 and 2025, Mali increased its royalties from 6.5% to 10% and raised its ownership stake in mines to 35%. This resulted in a recovery of over $1.2 billion in unpaid revenue, funds used to pay civil servants and invest in solar energy.
Conclusion: The Price of the Crossfire
Mali is currently a laboratory for a new kind of conflict—one where jihadist economic warfare meets Great Power competition. While the government celebrates its defiance of former colonial masters, the citizens of Timbuktu and Mopti remain in the dark.
The question remains: is Mali a nation finally standing on its own two feet, or is it a country being systematically dismantled by those who stand to gain from its collapse?