The transition from Muhammadu Buhari to Bola Tinubu on May 29, 2023, marked a radical shift in Nigeria’s economic management—from Buhari’s protective, state-led approach to Tinubu’s market-liberalizing “renewed hope” reforms.
While Buhari was often criticized for “kicking the can down the road,” Tinubu’s immediate actions—scrapping the fuel subsidy and floating the Naira—triggered a massive “price shock” that reshaped the Nigerian reality.
Comparative Economic Performance (2023–2026)
| Economic Indicator | Buhari’s End (May 2023) | Tinubu (Mid-Term 2025/2026) | Trend Analysis |
| Inflation Rate | 22.41% | ~14.5% (Nov 2025) | Peaked at 34.8% (late 2024) before decelerating. |
| Exchange Rate (official) | ₦460 / $1 | ₦1,450 – ₦1,500 / $1 | Stabilization found after massive 2024 volatility. |
| National Debt | ₦49 Trillion | ₦121 Trillion+ (Q1 2024) | increase in Naira terms due to devaluation and borrowing. |
| GDP Growth | 2.7% (2023 average) | ~4.2% (Projected 2026) | Slowed initially, but rebounding via services and ICT. |
| Fuel Price (PMS) | ₦185 – ₦250 / liter | ₦1,000+ / liter | Astronomical rise following total subsidy removal. |
Key Policy Shifts: Buhari vs. Tinubu
1. The Subsidy Question
Buhari’s administration spent trillions on the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) subsidy, which he believed protected the poor, but critics argued only enriched smugglers and depleted the treasury. Tinubu ended this on “Day One.” The result was an immediate 200%+ hike in transportation and food costs, pushing an estimated 8 to 10 million additional Nigerians into poverty by 2025.
2. Monetary Policy & The Naira
Buhari maintained a multiple exchange rate system and used “Ways and Means” (Central Bank printing) to fund government deficits. Tinubu “floated” the Naira to unify the rates. This led to the Naira’s value crashing from ₦460 to nearly ₦1,900 in mid-2024 before the Central Bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes (reaching 27.5%) helped stabilize it around ₦1,450 by early 2026.
3. Foreign Investment and Reserves
Under Buhari, foreign direct investment (FDI) hit record lows due to difficulty in repatriating funds. Tinubu’s market reforms initially caused “portfolio” (hot) money to flood in, but FDI remains slow. However, by late 2025, Nigeria’s foreign reserves hit a five-year high of over $45 billion, offering the country a stronger buffer against global shocks.
The Human Cost of Reform
While the “macro” numbers for 2026 show signs of recovery—with inflation finally trending downward—the “micro” reality for the average Nigerian remains grim.
-
Purchasing Power: Salaries have not kept pace with the 2024 inflation spike.
-
Cost of Living: High electricity tariffs and fuel prices have forced many SMEs to shut down.
-
Security: Despite leadership changes, insecurity in farming belts continues to keep food inflation “stubbornly high” (around 20% in late 2025).