For a brief, shining moment on July 9, 2011, South Sudan was the most hopeful place on Earth. In Juba, the world’s newest capital, people danced in the streets to celebrate the birth of their nation after decades of war. On paper, the country was a titan in waiting: it possessed vast oil reserves, millions of acres of fertile land, and the unwavering support of the international community.
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But fifteen years later, that hope has been replaced by a grim reality. As of February 2026, South Sudan is not a country in transition; it is a country in suspension. The arrest and trial of First Vice President Riek Machar on charges of murder, treason, and crimes against humanity in September 2025 has brought the nation to the precipice of a new civil war.
While the government frames these charges as a matter of legal accountability, a deeper look reveals a more cynical pattern. In South Sudan, instability is not a failure of the system—it is the system. For a small group of political and military elites, a permanent state of “peace-processing” has become more profitable than actual peace.
The Fractured Foundation: Kiir vs. Machar
To understand why the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS) is currently being dismantled, one must look at the two men at the top: President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar.
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Salva Kiir: A Dinka military leader who has served as president since independence.
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Riek Machar: A Nuer intellectual and rebel leader who has been Kiir’s primary rival for decades.
Their rivalry first tore the country apart in December 2013, leading to a civil war that killed nearly 400,000 people and displaced 4 million. Despite the 2018 peace deal, the underlying ethnic and political tensions never disappeared. Instead, they were baked into a “Unity Government” where two men who did not trust each other were expected to share power.
The Strategy of Delay
The peace agreement was built on a timeline of democratic transition, but that timeline has been repeatedly ignored. Elections have become a mirage on the horizon:
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Original Date: 2023
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First Delay: Pushed to December 2024.
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Second Delay: In September 2024, the government announced a further extension to December 22, 2026.
Each delay serves a dual purpose: it keeps the current elites in power without the risk of a ballot box, and it allows for the continued erosion of the opposition. In 2023, Kiir unilaterally removed the Defense Minister, Angelina Tenny (Machar’s wife), replacing her with a loyalist. Simultaneously, Machar’s movement (SPLM-IO) began to splinter. By offering amnesty and positions to breakaway rebel factions, Kiir’s government has effectively “dismantled the opposition from the inside” without needing a full-scale offensive.
“Plundering a Nation”: The Economics of Instability
The most recent and damning evidence of why peace has stalled came in a September 2025 UN report titled “Plundering a Nation.” The report details a staggering level of “off-budget” spending that bypasses the South Sudanese people entirely.
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The “Oil for Roads” Scandal
The government’s flagship infrastructure project, Oil for Roads, has become a textbook case of elite capture.
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Total Revenue Received: Over $2.2 billion by late 2024.
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Unaccounted Funds: Roughly $1.7 billion.
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The Reality: While billions were “spent,” investigators found that less than $500 million worth of roads were actually built. Much of the money was channeled to shell companies linked to high-ranking officials, including Vice President Benjamin Bol Mel.
Upside-Down Priorities
While the country faces a humanitarian catastrophe, the national budget reflects the interests of the presidency over the people:
| Entity | Spending (2020–2024) | Budget Overrun |
| :— | :— | :— |
| Ministry of Presidential Affairs | ~$557 Million | 584% |
| Ministry of Health | ~$29 Million | N/A |
| Agriculture & Food Security | ~$11 Million | N/A |
The Ministry of Presidential Affairs spent 19 times more than the Ministry of Health, even as the country grappled with its worst cholera outbreak on record (over 98,000 cases reported since late 2024).
An Army in Name Only
A cornerstone of the 2018 deal was the creation of a Unified National Army of 83,000 soldiers. However, the process was a farce. By August 2022, when the first batch finally graduated, many recruits were seen parading with wooden replicas of rifles.
Today, command structures remain fragmented. Units stay loyal to their original ethnic factions rather than the state. Consequently, when political tensions spiked in Juba in late 2025, the security forces did not act as a neutral stabilizing force—they acted as the private militias of the men at the top.
The Human Toll
While the elites maneuver for control of the oil pipelines, the citizens of South Sudan are living through a “permanent crisis”:
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Food Insecurity: 7.7 million people face acute hunger.
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Education: Over 70% of children are out of school, the highest rate globally.
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Displacement: Over 2 million people are internally displaced; another 2.3 million are refugees in neighboring countries.
Conclusion: Is There a Way Forward?
The arrest of Riek Machar in March 2025 and his subsequent treason trial have effectively frozen the political process. The SPLM-IO has refused to engage in dialogue while its leader is under house arrest, and the government shows no signs of backing down.
As South Sudan drifts toward its new “final” election date of December 2026, the international community faces a difficult question: how do you enforce a peace agreement when the people in charge of it find the status quo of “managed instability” to be more profitable than a functioning democracy?