From the bustling corridors of the Mining Indaba 2026, a clear message resonates: Africa is no longer a passive participant in the global scramble for its vast mineral wealth. Instead, nations like Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are masterfully executing a high-stakes balancing act, leveraging competition between global powers to secure better terms, foster local growth, and reshape the future of their mining sectors.
The buzz around “critical minerals”—essential for the global energy transition—has ignited a renewed geopolitical contest. On one side stands China, a long-term investor with deep ties and industrial muscle. On the other hand, the United States and Europe are belatedly but assertively re-engaging, keen to diversify their supply chains away from Chinese dominance. Africa, rich in copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths, finds itself at the epicenter.
The Great Railway Race: TAZARA vs. Lobito
A tangible illustration of this dynamic is the emerging “Corridor Competition” across Southern Africa. Zambia, landlocked and mineral-rich, is the strategic prize in this infrastructure tug-of-war. For decades, the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA), a symbol of Cold War-era Chinese-African solidarity, has provided a vital link to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam. Now, with a substantial $1.4 billion Chinese investment for its modernization, TAZARA is being reborn as a critical artery for mineral exports to the East.
Simultaneously, the US and EU are heavily backing the Lobito Corridor, an ambitious project connecting the DRC and Zambia to the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola. This Western-led initiative aims to provide an alternative export route, crucially avoiding Chinese-controlled infrastructure.
African nations, particularly Zambia, are strategically embracing both. By fostering competition, they ensure multiple viable export routes, minimize dependence on any single power, and—critically—extract better deals on freight costs, transit times, and local participation. The message is clear: Africa will not be forced to choose, but rather aims to benefit from all players.
The “Yuanization” of African Mining
Beyond infrastructure, shifts in financial mechanisms signal a deepening alignment with Eastern powers. Zambia’s recent decision to accept the Chinese Yuan (RMB) for mining tax payments is a watershed moment. This move isn’t merely symbolic; it’s pragmatic. Given China’s position as the largest buyer of Zambian copper and a significant creditor, settling in RMB reduces currency conversion costs, hedges against dollar fluctuations, and streamlines financial flows.
This pragmatic shift also aligns with China’s broader ambition to internationalize its currency, gradually chipping away at the US dollar’s global dominance in commodity trading. As African nations seek more autonomy in their financial systems, the RMB offers a viable alternative, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on Chinese markets.
China’s Enduring On-the-Ground Dominance
While Western powers focus on securing “offtake agreements” (guaranteed purchases of minerals), China’s strategy remains fundamentally different, and arguably more impactful on the ground. Chinese companies aren’t just buying; they are building.
“Mining equipment is coming from China mainly compared to the West,” noted one delegate at the Indaba. This supply chain dominance, coupled with a willingness to invest in higher-risk, lower-grade deposits often shunned by Western firms, provides China with a formidable competitive advantage. Investments in new technologies, automation, and AI for extraction are allowing these larger-scale projects to become economically viable.
Crucially, this deep industrial engagement often comes with a tangible transfer of knowledge and capacity building. The long-term vision for many African nations is to move beyond simply exporting raw materials. They seek “long-term sustainability and Africans leading their mines at the end of the day,” alongside increased local beneficiation—processing minerals within Africa to capture more value. China’s extensive presence and integrated approach, from equipment to expertise, often facilitate this more directly than Western models.
“Co-opetition” and the Future Outlook
Despite the rhetoric of geopolitical rivalry, the reality on the ground is often one of “co-opetition.” Western-backed mining projects frequently rely on Chinese-dominated supply chains for refining and processing. Furthermore, African governments are demonstrating increased assertiveness in renegotiating existing contracts, such as the DRC’s recent review of its vast “minerals-for-infrastructure” deal with Chinese entities, ensuring that Africa gains “a bigger global share.”
The message from Mining Indaba 2026 is clear: Africa is in the driver’s seat. By shrewdly balancing the interests and investments of competing global powers, the continent is forging its own path, prioritizing job creation, economic growth, and greater control over its own mineral destiny. The future of global critical mineral supply chains will not be dictated by one power, but negotiated in the boardrooms and across the railway lines of Africa.