The story of Nigeria’s 2015 transition is not merely one of a democratic handover; it is a complex tapestry of political branding, international maneuvering, and the exploitation of a nation’s collective trauma. It is the story of how Muhammadu Buhari, once a pariah of the democratic process, was repackaged as a “converted democrat” to seize the soul of the most populous Black nation on Earth.
The Shadow of 1983: The General’s First Coming
To understand the gravity of the 2015 victory, one must look back to New Year’s Eve, 1983. While the world celebrated, Nigeria woke to the suspension of its constitution. Major General Muhammadu Buhari had ousted the civilian president, Shehu Shagari.
His 20-month reign as military Head of State was defined by the War Against Indiscipline (WAI). While some praised the order it brought, many remember the terror:
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Draconian Decrees: Decree No. 4 criminalized reporting that ridiculed the government, even if the report was true.
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Humiliation: Civil servants arriving late were forced to perform “frog jumps” in public.
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Economic Chaos: Soldiers forced market women to sell goods at dictated prices, leading to scarcity.
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Human Rights: Over 500 politicians and businessmen were jailed; journalists like Tunde Thompson and Nduka Irabor were imprisoned for doing their jobs.
When he was ousted in 1985 by Ibrahim Babangida, the streets of Nigeria erupted in joy. It was believed the “Buhari era” was a closed chapter of history.
The Religious Rebirth (2000–2011)
Buhari’s path back to relevance began not with policy, but with religion. In 2000, when Governor Ahmed Sani Yerima introduced Sharia law in Zamfara State, it sparked a national firestorm.
Buhari leaned into this divide. In 2001, at an Islamic seminar in Kaduna, he famously declared his commitment to the Sharia movement, stating: “God willing, we will not stop the agitation for the total implementation of the Sharia in the country.” This solidified his base in the North, turning him from a failed dictator into a regional messiah—a “defender of the faith.”
However, this regional strength was his national weakness. He lost three consecutive elections:
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2003: Lost to Olusegun Obasanjo (12 million vs. 24 million votes).
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2007: Lost to Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (his fellow kinsman from Katsina).
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2011: Lost to Goodluck Jonathan, leading to his famous “tears on television” and subsequent riots that claimed over 800 lives in the North.
The Blueprint for Deception: The Birth of the APC
By 2013, the opposition realized that Buhari could never win alone, and the “political godfather” of the South, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, realized he needed the North’s voting bloc.
They formed the All Progressives Congress (APC)—a merger of the ACN, CPC, and ANPP. This was the “Great Alliance.” To make Buhari palatable to the South and the international community, a massive PR machine was launched.
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The “Converted Democrat”: The narrative was shifted. He was no longer a dictator, but a “disciplinarian” needed to fix a “corrupt” nation.
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The 5,000 Naira Promise: They promised monthly stipends to the poor.
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Economic Miracles: They promised to make 1 Naira equal to 1 Dollar.
The Perfect Storm: Boko Haram and International Coldness
While the APC built its propaganda, the sitting president, Goodluck Jonathan, was drowning. The rise of Boko Haram in 2009 had escalated into a full-scale insurgency.
The 2014 kidnapping of 276 Chibok schoolgirls was the tipping point. The “Bring Back Our Girls” movement went global, making Jonathan appear incompetent. Crucially, the Obama administration refused to sell weapons to Nigeria, citing human rights concerns. Jonathan would later claim this was a deliberate attempt by the West to weaken his presidency and facilitate a change in power.
“Obama keenly wanted me out of office.” — Goodluck Jonathan
The 2015 Election: The Tipping Point
The election was postponed by six weeks to allow the military to clear the Northeast of terrorists. The APC and the U.S. government condemned the delay as a “ploy.”
On election day, the tide had turned. Despite Jonathan’s last-minute military gains, the APC’s message of “Change” had permeated every level of society. Buhari, the man who once banned the press, was now the “hero” of the people.
Key Statistics of the 2015 Election:
Candidate | Party | Votes Received | Percentage
Muhammadu Buhari | APC | 15,424,921 | 53.95%
Goodluck Jonathan | PDP | 12,853,162 | 44.96%
In an unprecedented move for a Nigerian incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan placed a phone call to Buhari before the final tally was announced, conceding defeat and avoiding a potential civil war.
Legacy: “I Belong to Everybody”
Buhari’s inauguration speech contained the famous line: “I belong to everybody, and I belong to nobody.” However, critics argue that the following eight years revealed the “Great Deceit.” The promises of a 1:1 Naira exchange rate, the end of fuel subsidies (which he originally protested against in 2012), and the total defeat of insecurity remained unfulfilled. The man who was brought in to save Nigeria eventually left it with a debt profile that would haunt generations.
The 2015 election remains a masterclass in how political desperation, combined with strategic propaganda and international pressure, can reinvent a historical figure to suit the needs of the present—regardless of the consequences for the future.