The landscape of African mining is shifting. While the Sahel region is currently a focal point of intense political change and heightened risk, the conversation at the recent session suggests we are witnessing an evolution rather than a total reinvention of the wheel.
Here is a breakdown of the key insights regarding the “new” era of resource nationalism, long-term stability, and the rise of the African entrepreneur.
1. The Simandou Lesson: When Stars Align
The Simandou project, which finally took off last year after decades of negotiation, serves as a blueprint for massive scale. It proved that for a “revolution” to occur, several factors must converge simultaneously:
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Market Readiness: There must be an immediate global demand for the ore.
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Capital Availability: Huge projects require accessible funding.
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Leadership Will: Leaders must be prepared to move from negotiation to execution.
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The Window of Opportunity: Large-scale contracts take years; missing the timing can result in decades of stagnation.
2. The Rise of “Rational” Nationalism
There is a widespread trend toward nationalism across the continent, but it is increasingly focused on the entire value chain. Many African mining codes are being revised to ask a simple, piercing question: Why import services or expertise when local actors can play the same role?
This shift emphasizes:
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Local Content: Prioritizing local actors to ensure the wealth stays within the borders.
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Value Chain Mastery: Governments are no longer just looking at extraction; they want to understand and participate in every step from the ground to the market.
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Capacity Building: Unlike the nationalism of the 1970s, today’s movement is backed by a new generation of African mining entrepreneurs who have the “know-how” and the seat at the negotiating table.
3. Navigating the Sahelian Risk
The current climate in the Sahel brings higher risks due to rapid regime changes. However, the session highlighted a grounded reality: Regimes change, but the resources remain constant. For investors and stakeholders, the “Big Question” has shifted from short-term gain to long-term endurance: “Can I stay in this country for 30 or 40 years?” Success in this volatile environment requires:
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Strict Legal Adherence: Staying within the bounds of the law and international conventions, even when tempted to bypass them.
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Evolutionary Awareness: Taking into account global trends and local realities on the ground.
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Economic Frameworks: Planning for risk through robust business models that account for political shifts.
The Verdict: Evolution, Not Revolution
While the events in the Sahel are dramatic, they may not be creating a “new” model so much as refining an old one. We are seeing a return to the nationalism of the 1970s, but with a critical difference: skill. Africa now has the expertise, the entrepreneurs, and the hard-won lessons from past mistakes to ensure that these non-renewable resources benefit the continent before they are gone forever.
“Resources are non-renewable. Once they are gone, they are gone. Knowing their value and negotiating their future is no longer optional—it is a necessity.”