The events of October 29, 2025, in Dar es Salaam marked a profound rupture in Tanzania’s history of stability. As police vehicles burned on Nelson Mandela Road and military boots appeared on the streets—places they had not been seen in decades—the country’s political crisis shattered the image of a nation once lauded as an East African anchor of peace.
The subsequent information blackout and the wildly contested death toll—ranging from a United Nations-confirmed minimum of 10 to the opposition’s claim of approximately 700—underscore the complete breakdown of trust and the weaponization of narrative. The 70-fold gap between these figures is not an accident of reporting; it is the fundamental conflict between two incompatible realities, one decreed by the ruling party and one witnessed by the streets.
This article examines the systematic process by which President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government orchestrated the elimination of political competition, transforming from a globally praised transitional administration to an entrenched authoritarian regime.
I. The Ephemeral Democratic Opening (2021–2023)
Samia Suluhu Hassan’s ascension to the presidency in March 2021, following the death of John Magufuli, was initially hailed as a moment of democratic renewal. Embracing a policy of the “Four Rs” (Reconciliation, Resilience, Reforms, and Rebuilding), she implemented several key changes:
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COVID-19 Reversal: She swiftly reversed Magufuli’s denialist stance, facilitating Tanzania’s entry into the COVAX program and starting vaccine distribution.
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Media and Civic Space: Bans on media outlets were lifted, and, critically, the six-year ban on opposition political rallies was rescinded in January 2023, raising expectations for a genuinely competitive 2025 election.
This period earned President Hassan international praise and recognition, including her ranking in Forbes’ “World’s 100 most powerful women” list and enhanced engagement with global institutions like the World Bank. The term “Mama Samia” became a symbol of potential democratic possibility.
II. The Systemic Closure: 2024–2025
The momentum toward political openness sharply reversed in mid-2023, replaced by a strategic consolidation of power within the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. This shift was marked by both political and violent means:
A. Political Elimination of Opposition
The 2025 election was systematically engineered to remove any credible challenge:
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Exclusion of Major Parties: The two largest opposition parties, Chadema and the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT-Wazalendo), were barred from participating. Chadema was disqualified on April 12, 2025, for refusing to sign an electoral code of conduct deemed fundamentally restrictive. ACT-Wazalendo’s candidate, Luhaga Mpina, was disqualified twice on procedural irregularities.
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Targeting of Key Leaders: Chadema Chairman Tundu Lissu, a prominent pro-democracy figure who survived an assassination attempt in 2017, was arrested on April 9, 2025, after a rally advocating for “No Reforms, No Elections.” He was charged with high treason and “publishing false information,” a non-bailable, capital offense, effectively removing him from the political landscape.
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CCM Internal Purge: The crackdown extended even to loyalists. Humphrey Pole Pole, a former CCM Secretary for Ideology and Ambassador, disappeared on October 6, 2025, shortly after resigning and criticizing Hassan’s government. Eyewitness accounts suggest a violent abduction, an incident that shocked party insiders and signaled that descent from any quarter would be met with force.
B. Enforced Disappearances and Extrajudicial Violence
Human rights organizations documented a severe escalation of repression, creating a comprehensive climate of fear:
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Documented Abductions: The UN Working Group on Enforced Disappearances has raised concerns over more than 200 cases since 2019. The Tanganyika Law Society has confirmed 83 disappearances since 2021.
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The Killing of Ali Kibo: The murder of 69-year-old Chadema official Ali Muhammad Kibo in September 2024, whose body was found with signs of torture and acid burns, served as a chilling message to opposition activists.
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Targeting of Youth Activists: Youth leaders, including Don Gipana and John Kito, vanished after arrests related to planning protests. The government also used mass arrests to preemptively quash demonstrations, including over 500 Chadema supporters in Mbeya in August 2024.
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Disenfranchisement: Approximately 100,000 Maasai community members were disenfranchised through voter registration manipulation in retaliation for resistance to forced evictions from the Ngorongoro Conservation Area.
In 2024, the international organization Freedom House officially downgraded Tanzania’s status from Partly Free to Not Free, an indictment on Hassan’s governance style.
III. The Post-Election Crisis and Information War
The election proceeded with only token opposition. Provisional results showed President Hassan securing an overwhelming 97.66% of the vote with a turnout of 32.7 million votes, a figure immediately dismissed as fraudulent. The protests that erupted in major cities like Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Arusha were met with a severe, coordinated state response:
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Security Escalation: Inspector General Camillus Wambura declared a curfew, and the deployment of the military on October 30 marked a significant departure from Tanzania’s post-independence norms.
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Information Blackout: A total nationwide internet and communications blackout was imposed, preventing documentation, coordination, and independent reporting.
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Casualty Disparity: The immediate lack of verifiable facts led to the unprecedented gap in casualty figures:
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United Nations: Credible reports of at least 10 deaths.
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Amnesty International: Documented at least 100 fatalities.
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Chadema: Alleged approximately 700 deaths, with thousands more arrested and charged with treason.
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The government’s silence on casualties and its characterization of protesters as “criminals” by the Army Chief General Jacob John Mkunda served to deny both accountability and the human cost of the crackdown.
IV. Regional and Geopolitical Implications
The Tanzanian crisis is not isolated; it is a critical tipping point for East Africa:
| Stakeholder | Concern / Interest | Implication of Crisis |
| Regional Youth | 65% of EAC population is under 30. | Precedent Set: If Hassan succeeds, it validates authoritarian control across the region (e.g., Uganda, Rwanda). If the protests force change, it validates youth-led resistance (e.g., Kenya’s Gen Z, Madagascar’s protests). |
| East African Community (EAC) | Headquarters in Arusha; regional integration efforts. | Protracted instability, economic collapse, and refugee flows jeopardize plans for an EAC monetary union and political confederation. |
| China | $11.4 billion total investment; key Belt and Road node. | Prioritizes stability to protect strategic assets (e.g., potential PLA military facility on the coast). Hassan’s survival offers predictability. |
| Western Powers | Promoting democracy and stability; human rights concerns. | Withdrawing election observers and condemning the fraud (European Parliament), but their diplomatic response is complicated by the need for regional strategic partners. |
The most significant consequence remains for the 67 million ordinary Tanzanians, for whom the political violence and suppression of the 2025 election have determined a new reality: one where the peaceful path to democratic change has been systematically closed. The stability for which Tanzania was once known has been shattered, replaced by the profound fear of state-sanctioned violence and an unprecedented struggle for accountability.